Bryan Smith
LB, McNeese St. · 2008 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #80 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #134 (#14 at his position); he went #80, 54 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~32 possible regular-season games from 2008 through 2009 (~19%). Last NFL season: 2009.
- School
McNeese St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.74 40-yard dash at 231 lbs: faster than 24% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 6 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| Defense | 3 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2009 |
The 2008 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2008 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 231 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.74 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 32.5" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| 3-cone | 7.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #134 overall (#14 LB) |
Picked around him 2008 redraft
| 77 | Pat Sims | redraft #63 |
| 78 | Shawn Crable | redraft #210 |
| 79 | Antwaun Molden | redraft #154 |
| 81 | Early Doucet | redraft #114 |
| 82 | DaJuan Morgan | redraft #159 |
| 83 | Jeremy Zuttah | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.