Bruce Irvin
DE, West Virginia · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #15 (SEA)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #56 (#3 at his position); he went #15, 41 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
West Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.41 40-yard dash at 245 lbs: faster than 100% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 140 of ~195 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2023 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 140 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Defense | 235 tackles, 56.5 sacks, 3 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 245 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.41 s |
| Bench press | 23 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| 3-cone | 6.7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.03 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.3" / 9.5" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #56 overall (#3 DE) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 12 | Fletcher Cox | redraft #5 |
| 13 | Michael Floyd | redraft #61 |
| 14 | Michael Brockers | redraft #20 |
| 16 | Quinton Coples | redraft #87 |
| 17 | Dre Kirkpatrick | redraft #55 |
| 18 | Melvin Ingram | redraft #23 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.