Brock Osweiler
QB, Arizona St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #57 (DEN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 49 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2018 (~44%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #42 (#4 at his position), close to where he went (#57).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arizona St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.83 40-yard dash at 242 lbs: faster than 44% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 49 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Passing | 697/1165, 7,418 yds, 37 TD, 31 INT |
| Rushing | 92 att, 266 yds, 4 TD |
| Receiving | 1 rec, -14 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 242 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.83 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.7" / 9.7" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #42 overall (#4 QB) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 54 | Ryan Broyles | redraft #164 |
| 55 | Peter Konz | redraft #93 |
| 56 | Mike Adams | redraft #109 |
| 58 | Lavonte David | redraft #6 |
| 59 | Vinny Curry | redraft #74 |
| 60 | Kelechi Osemele | redraft #35 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.