Brian Hill
RB, Wyoming · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #156 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #189 (#18 at his position); he went #156, 33 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wyoming: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at 219 lbs: faster than 48% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 48 of ~81 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2021 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 48 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.0 |
| Rushing | 209 att, 982 yds, 3 TD |
| Receiving | 38 rec, 313 yds, 1 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 219 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.54 s |
| Bench press | 15 reps |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 125" |
| 3-cone | 7.03 s |
| Shuttle | 4.32 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #189 overall (#18 RB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 153 | Jake Elliott | redraft #76 |
| 154 | Jeremy Sprinkle | redraft #181 |
| 155 | Jayon Brown | redraft #72 |
| 157 | Will Holden | redraft #158 |
| 158 | Nate Hairston | redraft #133 |
| 159 | Jermaine Eluemunor | redraft #51 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.