Brent Celek
TE, Cincinnati · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #162 (PHI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 175 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2017 (~99%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #282 (#16 at his position); he went #162, 120 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Cincinnati: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 175 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 9 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 35 |
| Receiving | 398 rec, 4,998 yds, 31 TD |
| Defense | 7 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 248 lbs |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #282 overall (#16 TE) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 159 | C.J. Gaddis | redraft #236 |
| 160 | Justin Medlock | redraft #198 |
| 161 | Will Herring | redraft #116 |
| 163 | Brandon Frye | redraft #184 |
| 164 | Tim Shaw | redraft #141 |
| 165 | Eric Frampton | redraft #144 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.