Brandon Mebane
DT, California · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 3, pick #85 (SEA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 182 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2019 (~88%). Last NFL season: 2019.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #80 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#85). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
California: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.15 40-yard dash at 309 lbs: faster than 13% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 182 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 13 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 63 |
| Defense | 299 tackles, 18.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2019 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 309 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.15 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 24" |
| Broad jump | 106" |
| 3-cone | 7.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.65 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #80 overall (#6 DT) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 82 | Tank Tyler | redraft #108 |
| 83 | Charles Johnson | redraft #28 |
| 84 | Jonathan Wade | redraft #135 |
| 86 | Marshal Yanda | redraft #4 |
| 87 | Stewart Bradley | redraft #73 |
| 88 | Andy Alleman | redraft #146 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.