Brandon Marshall
WR, Central Florida · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #119 (DEN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 179 of ~208 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2018 (~86%). Last NFL season: 2018.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#119). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Central Florida: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.52 40-yard dash at 229 lbs: faster than 29% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 179 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 10 |
| Pro Bowls | 6 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 83 |
| Passing | undefined/1, 0 yds, undefined TD, undefined INT |
| Rushing | 20 att, 118 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 970 rec, 12,351 yds, 83 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2018 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 229 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.52 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 120" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#11 WR) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 116 | Stephen Tulloch | redraft #35 |
| 117 | Leon Washington | redraft #71 |
| 118 | Stephen Gostkowski | redraft #56 |
| 120 | Jamar Williams | redraft #150 |
| 121 | Nate Salley | redraft #182 |
| 122 | Alan Zemaitis | redraft #229 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.