Brandon Allen
QB, Arkansas · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #201 (JAX)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #105 overall (#6 at his position), but he lasted until pick #201: teams let him slide 96 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Arkansas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.84 40-yard dash at 217 lbs: faster than 38% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~165 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2025 (~12%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 5 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 5.0 |
| Passing | 183/323, 1,882 yds, 11 TD, 9 INT |
| Rushing | 36 att, 68 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 217 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.84 s |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 110" |
| 3-cone | 7.06 s |
| Shuttle | 4.33 s |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #105 overall (#6 QB) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 198 | Derek Watt | redraft #200 |
| 199 | Cody Core | redraft #174 |
| 200 | Kyle Murphy | redraft #190 |
| 202 | Anthony Zettel | redraft #128 |
| 203 | Dadi Nicolas | redraft #207 |
| 204 | Jordan Lucas | redraft #172 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.