Billy Winn
DT, Boise St. · 2012 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #205 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #96 overall (#12 at his position), but he lasted until pick #205: teams let him slide 109 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.86 40-yard dash at 294 lbs: faster than 58% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 74 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2012 through 2020 (~51%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 74 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Defense | 70 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2012 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2012 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 294 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.86 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 27" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.37 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Arm / hand | 32.4" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #96 overall (#12 DT) |
Picked around him 2012 redraft
| 202 | Terrance Ganaway | redraft #222 |
| 203 | Robert Griffin | redraft #241 |
| 204 | Emmanuel Acho | redraft #184 |
| 206 | LaVon Brazill | redraft #163 |
| 207 | Brad Nortman | redraft #114 |
| 208 | Justin Anderson | redraft #242 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.