Billy Bowman
SAF, Oklahoma · 2025 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #118 (ATL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Availability
Played 6 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2025 through 2025 (~35%). Plus 4 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #102 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#118).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Oklahoma: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.42 40-yard dash at 192 lbs: faster than 77% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SAF (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 10 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 1 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 0.9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 1.9 |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 192 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.42 s |
| Bench press | 17 reps |
| Vertical | 35.5" |
| Broad jump | 123" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #102 overall (#7 SAF) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 115 | Cody Simon | redraft #93 |
| 116 | Woody Marks | redraft #29 |
| 117 | Jarquez Hunter | redraft #221 |
| 119 | Barrett Carter | redraft #34 |
| 120 | Gunnar Helm | redraft #58 |
| 121 | David Walker | redraft #179 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.