Bijan Robinson
RB, Texas · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #8 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~98%). Plus 7 games so far in 2026.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #2 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#8).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.46 40-yard dash at 215 lbs: faster than 72% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 57 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 2 |
| First-team All-Pro | 1 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 36 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 2.3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 38.3 |
| Rushing | 916 att, 4,551 yds, 29 TD |
| Receiving | 218 rec, 1,882 yds, 10 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 11", 215 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.46 s |
| Vertical | 37" |
| Broad jump | 124" |
| Arm / hand | 31.13" / 9.75" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #2 overall (#1 RB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 5 | Devon Witherspoon | redraft #9 |
| 6 | Paris Johnson | redraft #26 |
| 7 | Tyree Wilson | redraft #98 |
| 9 | Jalen Carter | redraft #13 |
| 10 | Darnell Wright | redraft #12 |
| 11 | Peter Skoronski | redraft #37 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.