Bear Pascoe
TE, Fresno St. · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #184 (SFO)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #177 (#12 at his position), close to where he went (#184).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Fresno St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.89 40-yard dash at 251 lbs: faster than 8% of TEs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
TE (TE group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 37.1% of the time (321 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 85 of ~112 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2015 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 85 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Rushing | 1 att, 2 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 40 rec, 336 yds, 2 TD |
| Defense | 4 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position TE | 37.1% n=321 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 251 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.89 s |
| Vertical | 26.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| 3-cone | 7.65 s |
| Shuttle | 4.55 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #177 overall (#12 TE) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 181 | Andrew Gardner | redraft #129 |
| 182 | Jarius Wynn | redraft #118 |
| 183 | Cary Harris | redraft #191 |
| 185 | Cedric Peerman | redraft #151 |
| 186 | Robert Henson | redraft #217 |
| 187 | Brandon Underwood | redraft #171 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.