Avery Williams
CB, Boise St. · 2021 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #183 (ATL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boise St.: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 187 lbs: faster than 73% of DBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
CB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 50 of ~85 possible regular-season games from 2021 through 2025 (~59%).
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 50 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Rushing | 22 att, 109 yds, 1 TD |
| Receiving | 13 rec, 61 yds, undefined TD |
| Defense | 13 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 8", 187 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Bench press | 19 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 121" |
| 3-cone | 6.88 s |
| Shuttle | 4 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 180 | Talanoa Hufanga | redraft #28 |
| 181 | Cornell Powell | redraft #236 |
| 182 | Adetokunbo Ogundeji | redraft #111 |
| 184 | Ben Mason | redraft #249 |
| 185 | Nick Niemann | redraft #144 |
| 186 | Hamsah Nasirildeen | redraft #181 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.