Arthur Moats
LB, James Madison · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #178 (BUF)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position, availability. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 121 of ~128 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2017 (~95%). Last NFL season: 2017.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
James Madison: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.64 40-yard dash at 246 lbs: faster than 57% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 121 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 22 |
| Defense | 136 tackles, 16.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 246 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.64 s |
| Bench press | 24 reps |
| Vertical | 36.5" |
| Broad jump | 122" |
| 3-cone | 7.22 s |
| Shuttle | 4.37 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.6" / 8.6" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 175 | Greg Hardy | redraft #49 |
| 176 | Rusty Smith | redraft #204 |
| 177 | Carlton Mitchell | redraft #213 |
| 179 | Sam Young | redraft #97 |
| 180 | Deji Karim | redraft #155 |
| 181 | Dan LeFevour | redraft #243 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.