Antonio Garay
DE, Boston Col. · 2003 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Boston Col.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.90 40-yard dash at 295 lbs: faster than 51% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 56 of ~160 possible regular-season games from 2003 through 2012 (~35%). Last NFL season: 2012.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 56 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 15 |
| Defense | 94 tackles, 9 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2012 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 295 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.90 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 192 | Drew Henson | redraft #213 |
| 193 | Marques Ogden | redraft #242 |
| 194 | Aaron Hunt | redraft #243 |
| 196 | LaTarence Dunbar | redraft #221 |
| 197 | Arnaz Battle | redraft #89 |
| 198 | Cato June | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.