Antonio Brown
WR, Central Michigan · 2010 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.
- School
Central Michigan: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 186 lbs: faster than 16% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 146 of ~193 possible regular-season games from 2010 through 2021 (~76%). Last NFL season: 2021.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 7 |
| Pro Bowls | 7 |
| First-team All-Pro | 4 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 92 |
| Passing | 3/6, 35 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT |
| Rushing | 35 att, 128 yds, undefined TD |
| Receiving | 928 rec, 12,291 yds, 83 TD |
| Defense | 6 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2021 |
The 2010 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2010 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 10", 186 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 13 reps |
| Vertical | 33.5" |
| Broad jump | 105" |
| 3-cone | 6.98 s |
| Shuttle | 4.18 s |
| Arm / hand | 31" / 9" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
Picked around him 2010 redraft
| 192 | Danny Batten | redraft #175 |
| 193 | James Starks | redraft #66 |
| 194 | Ramon Harewood | redraft #180 |
| 196 | Jamar Wall | redraft #232 |
| 197 | Trindon Holliday | redraft #157 |
| 198 | David Gettis | redraft #159 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.