Anthony Richardson
QB, Florida · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 1, pick #4 (IND)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 17 of ~51 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2025 (~33%).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#4).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.43 40-yard dash at 244 lbs: faster than 98% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.6% of the time (973 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 17 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 9 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 9.0 |
| Passing | 177/350, 2,400 yds, 11 TD, 13 INT |
| Rushing | 115 att, 634 yds, 10 TD |
| Receiving | 2 rec, 8 yds, undefined TD |
| Last NFL season | 2025 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Top 25% at his position | 51.6% n=973 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 244 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.43 s |
| Vertical | 40.5" |
| Broad jump | 129" |
| Arm / hand | 32.75" / 10.5" |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#3 QB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 1 | Bryce Young | redraft #15 |
| 2 | C.J. Stroud | redraft #5 |
| 3 | Will Anderson | redraft #3 |
| 5 | Devon Witherspoon | redraft #9 |
| 6 | Paris Johnson | redraft #26 |
| 7 | Tyree Wilson | redraft #98 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.