Anthony Johnson
DB, Iowa St. · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #242 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #171 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #242: teams let him slide 71 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Iowa St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Combine
No NFL Combine invite on record (nflverse combine data), so teams had less verified testing on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 49% of the time (905 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DB (DB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.7% of the time (1,116 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 21 of ~34 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2024 (~62%). Last NFL season: 2024.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 21 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 3 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 3.0 |
| Defense | 20 tackles, 0 sacks, 1 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2024 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Combine No Combine invite | 49.0% n=905 | |
| Position DB | 50.7% n=1,116 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 205 lbs |
| Arm / hand | 31.25" / 8.75" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #171 overall (#13 DB) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 239 | Max Duggan | redraft #258 |
| 240 | Derek Parish | redraft #259 |
| 241 | Cory Trice | redraft #217 |
| 243 | Jordon Riley | redraft #147 |
| 244 | Jalen Brooks | redraft #172 |
| 245 | Isaiah Bolden | redraft #211 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.