Andrew Brown
DE, Virginia · 2018 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #158 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 28 of ~82 possible regular-season games from 2018 through 2022 (~34%). Last NFL season: 2022.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #127 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#158).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Virginia: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.03 40-yard dash at 296 lbs: faster than 30% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DE (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 28 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Defense | 13 tackles, 1 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2022 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 296 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.03 s |
| Bench press | 31 reps |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 101" |
| 3-cone | 7.51 s |
| Shuttle | 4.48 s |
| Arm / hand | 34.5" / 9.38" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #127 overall (#11 DE) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 155 | Scott Quessenberry | redraft #123 |
| 156 | Troy Fumagalli | redraft #211 |
| 157 | Tyler Conklin | redraft #90 |
| 159 | Daurice Fountain | redraft #230 |
| 160 | Ogbonnia Okoronkwo | redraft #125 |
| 161 | Jermaine Carter Jr. | redraft #114 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.