Alex Stepanovich
C, Ohio St. · 2004 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #100 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age, position. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #103 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#100).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Ohio St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.29 40-yard dash at 304 lbs: faster than 31% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 46 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2004 through 2008 (~58%). Last NFL season: 2008.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 46 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 1 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Last NFL season | 2008 |
The 2004 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2004 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 304 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.29 s |
| Vertical | 25.5" |
| Broad jump | 96" |
| 3-cone | 7.64 s |
| Shuttle | 4.44 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #103 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2004 redraft
| 97 | Reggie Torbor | redraft #88 |
| 98 | Shaun Phillips | redraft #22 |
| 99 | Carlos Francis | redraft #209 |
| 101 | Demorrio Williams | redraft #51 |
| 102 | Will Poole | redraft #181 |
| 103 | Bo Schobel | redraft #161 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.