Alex Lewis
T, Nebraska · 2016 NFL Draft, Round 4, pick #130 (BAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, position. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #66 overall (#7 at his position), but he lasted until pick #130: teams let him slide 64 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
T (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 44.9% of the time (548 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Nebraska: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.22 40-yard dash at 312 lbs: faster than 48% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 44 of ~80 possible regular-season games from 2016 through 2020 (~55%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 44 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 2 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 14 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 14.0 |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Age 24 or older | 44.9% n=548 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 312 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.22 s |
| Bench press | 27 reps |
| Vertical | 29.5" |
| Broad jump | 100" |
| 3-cone | 7.94 s |
| Shuttle | 4.72 s |
| Arm / hand | 33.75" / 9.88" |
| Age at draft | 24 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #66 overall (#7 T) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 127 | Deiondre' Hall | redraft #194 |
| 128 | Evan Boehm | redraft #116 |
| 129 | Derrick Kindred | redraft #133 |
| 131 | Blake Martinez | redraft #47 |
| 132 | Willie Henry | redraft #166 |
| 133 | Rashard Robinson | redraft #129 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.