Alan Branch
DT, Michigan · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 2, pick #33 (ARI)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#33).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Michigan: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.07 40-yard dash at 324 lbs: faster than 24% of DLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
DT (DL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53% of the time (966 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 146 of ~176 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2017 (~83%). Last NFL season: 2017.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 146 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 6 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Defense | 185 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2017 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position DL | 53.0% n=966 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 324 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.07 s |
| Bench press | 33 reps |
| Vertical | 27.5" |
| Broad jump | 107" |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#2 DT) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 30 | Craig Davis | redraft #133 |
| 31 | Greg Olsen | redraft #16 |
| 32 | Anthony Gonzalez | redraft #84 |
| 34 | Paul Posluszny | redraft #17 |
| 35 | Arron Sears | redraft #94 |
| 36 | Kevin Kolb | redraft #104 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.