Ahmad Bradshaw
RB, Marshall · 2007 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #250 (NYG)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings, age. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #176 overall (#15 at his position), but he lasted until pick #250: teams let him slide 74 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.6% of the time (663 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Marshall: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.55 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 45% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 103 of ~144 possible regular-season games from 2007 through 2015 (~72%). Last NFL season: 2015.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 103 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 3 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 42 |
| Rushing | 1083 att, 4,928 yds, 36 TD |
| Receiving | 187 rec, 1,493 yds, 12 TD |
| Defense | 18 tackles, 0 sacks, 0 INT |
| Last NFL season | 2015 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 21 or younger | 56.6% n=663 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.55 s |
| Vertical | 34" |
| Broad jump | 112" |
| 3-cone | 6.7 s |
| Shuttle | 4.09 s |
| Age at draft | 21 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #176 overall (#15 RB) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 247 | Mike Elgin | redraft #253 |
| 248 | Keith Jackson | redraft #254 |
| 249 | Derek Stanley | redraft #194 |
| 251 | Chad Nkang | redraft #160 |
| 252 | Andrew Carnahan | redraft #255 |
| 253 | Nedu Ndukwe | redraft #87 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.