Adrian McPherson
QB, Florida St. · 2005 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #152 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Never played a regular-season NFL game.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #120 overall (#9 at his position), but he lasted until pick #152: teams let him slide 32 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.71 40-yard dash at 218 lbs: faster than 70% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 0 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | Never played |
The 2005 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2005 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 218 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.71 s |
| Bench press | 22 reps |
| Vertical | 34.5" |
| Broad jump | 128" |
| 3-cone | 6.93 s |
| Shuttle | 4.08 s |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #120 overall (#9 QB) |
Picked around him 2005 redraft
| 149 | Adam Seward | redraft #150 |
| 150 | Daniel Loper | redraft #134 |
| 151 | Drew Hodgdon | redraft #157 |
| 153 | Adam Kieft | redraft #232 |
| 154 | Robert McCune | redraft #198 |
| 155 | Larry Brackins | redraft #233 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.