Aaron Jones
RB, Texas-El Paso · 2017 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #182 (GNB)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: age. Details below.
- Age
22 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.1% of the time (2,011 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #300 (#29 at his position); he went #182, 118 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (896 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Texas-El Paso: not a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (1,426 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 208 lbs: faster than 41% of RBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
RB (RB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 46.1% of the time (501 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 125 of ~149 possible regular-season games from 2017 through 2025 (~84%). Plus 6 games so far in 2026.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 131 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 8 |
| Pro Bowls | 1 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 67 |
| 2026 in-season credit (est.) | 1.8 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 68.8 |
| Rushing | 1661 att, 8,036 yds, 54 TD |
| Receiving | 363 rec, 2,755 yds, 21 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2026 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Age 22 | 56.1% n=2,011 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 32+ picks before ESPN's rank | 48.9% n=896 | |
| School Non-Power school (Group of 5 / FCS / smaller) | 50.5% n=1,426 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 | |
| Position RB | 46.1% n=501 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 5' 9", 208 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.56 s |
| Bench press | 16 reps |
| Vertical | 37.5" |
| Broad jump | 127" |
| 3-cone | 6.82 s |
| Shuttle | 4.2 s |
| Age at draft | 22 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #300 overall (#29 RB) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 179 | T.J. Logan | redraft #208 |
| 180 | Danny Isidora | redraft #169 |
| 181 | Dylan Donahue | redraft #218 |
| 183 | Ukeme Eligwe | redraft #186 |
| 184 | Nathan Gerry | redraft #98 |
| 185 | Caleb Brantley | redraft #184 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.