A.T. Perry
WR, Wake Forest · 2023 NFL Draft, Round 6, pick #195 (NOR)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: position, availability. Details below.
The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Position
WR (WR group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 40.4% of the time (718 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 10 of ~17 possible regular-season games from 2023 through 2023 (~59%). Last NFL season: 2023.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #107 overall (#14 at his position), but he lasted until pick #195: teams let him slide 88 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Wake Forest: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.47 40-yard dash at 198 lbs: faster than 49% of WRs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Games | 10 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 2 |
| Redraft value (wAV + 2026) | 2.0 |
| Receiving | 12 rec, 246 yds, 4 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
Career wAV via nflverse draft_picks + 2026 in-season credit from snap counts through Week 7.
The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position WR | 40.4% n=718 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4", 198 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.47 s |
| Vertical | 35" |
| Broad jump | 133" |
| Arm / hand | 33.25" / 9.25" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #107 overall (#14 WR) |
Picked around him 2023 redraft
| 192 | Bryce Baringer | redraft #94 |
| 193 | Chris Rodriguez | redraft #115 |
| 194 | Keondre Coburn | redraft #219 |
| 196 | Jose Ramirez | redraft #226 |
| 197 | Elijah Higgins | redraft #110 |
| 198 | Jerrick Reed | redraft #230 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.