A.Q. Shipley
C, Penn St. · 2009 NFL Draft, Round 7, pick #226 (PIT)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: position. Details below.
- Position
C (OL group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 59.3% of the time (919 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #246 (#6 at his position), close to where he went (#226). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Penn St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 5.19 40-yard dash at 304 lbs: faster than 55% of OLs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.5% of the time (2,288 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 110 of ~192 possible regular-season games from 2009 through 2020 (~57%). Last NFL season: 2020.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 110 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 4 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 33 |
| Last NFL season | 2020 |
The 2009 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2009 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Position OL | 59.3% n=919 | |
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Middle 50% | 50.5% n=2,288 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 304 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 5.19 s |
| Bench press | 33 reps |
| Vertical | 31" |
| Broad jump | 100" |
| 3-cone | 7.46 s |
| Shuttle | 4.4 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #246 overall (#6 C) |
Picked around him 2009 redraft
| 223 | Troy Nolan | redraft #135 |
| 224 | Demetrius Byrd | redraft #249 |
| 225 | Blake Schlueter | redraft #250 |
| 227 | Mike Mickens | redraft #251 |
| 228 | Lydon Murtha | redraft #181 |
| 229 | Manuel Johnson | redraft #226 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.