A.J. Nicholson
LB, Florida St. · 2006 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #157 (CIN)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 2 of ~16 possible regular-season games from 2006 through 2006 (~13%). Last NFL season: 2006.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #142 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#157).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.6% of the time (2,104 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Florida St.: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.88 40-yard dash at 252 lbs: faster than 4% of LBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
LB (LB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 56.8% of the time (701 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 2 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 0 |
| Last NFL season | 2006 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within a round of ESPN's rank | 50.6% n=2,104 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position LB | 56.8% n=701 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 1", 252 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.88 s |
| Bench press | 25 reps |
| Broad jump | 116" |
| 3-cone | 7.37 s |
| Shuttle | 4.43 s |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #142 overall (#11 LB) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 154 | Marcus Maxey | redraft #218 |
| 155 | Jeff King | redraft #126 |
| 156 | Julian Jenkins | redraft #185 |
| 158 | Charlie Peprah | redraft #119 |
| 159 | Mark Anderson | redraft #92 |
| 160 | Brent Hawkins | redraft #171 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.