A.J. McCarron
QB, Alabama · 2014 NFL Draft, Round 5, pick #164 (CIN)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #60 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #164: teams let him slide 104 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (654 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23 years old at the draft (nflverse).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (2,127 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- School
Alabama: a Power-conference school (our conference list).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.3% of the time (4,181 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Athletic testing
Ran a 4.94 40-yard dash at 220 lbs: faster than 18% of QBs timed at the Combine since 2000.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (1,232 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
QB (QB group).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 35.6% of the time (270 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 19 of ~163 possible regular-season games from 2014 through 2023 (~12%). Last NFL season: 2023.
Every line comes from data: nflverse draft, combine and career data; ESPN's pre-draft ranks. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Games | 19 |
| Seasons as primary starter | 0 |
| Pro Bowls | 0 |
| First-team All-Pro | 0 |
| Career wAV (Pro Football Reference) | 4 |
| Passing | 113/179, 1,192 yds, 6 TD, 3 INT |
| Rushing | 22 att, 68 yds, 1 TD |
| Last NFL season | 2023 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 32+ picks past ESPN's rank | 53.2% n=654 | |
| Age 23 | 50.4% n=2,127 | |
| School Power-conference school | 50.3% n=4,181 | |
| Athletic testing Bottom 25% at his position | 50.2% n=1,232 | |
| Position QB | 35.6% n=270 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 3", 220 lbs |
| 40-yard dash | 4.94 s |
| Vertical | 28" |
| Broad jump | 99" |
| 3-cone | 7.18 s |
| Shuttle | 4.34 s |
| Arm / hand | 31.4" / 10" |
| Age at draft | 23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #60 overall (#5 QB) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 161 | Corey Linsley | redraft #13 |
| 162 | Ed Reynolds | redraft #162 |
| 163 | Aaron Murray | redraft #233 |
| 165 | Ryan Carrethers | redraft #165 |
| 166 | Jonathan Newsome | redraft #153 |
| 167 | Vinnie Sunseri | redraft #207 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 32+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.