Victor Wembanyama
Photo: Frenchieinportland, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Victor Wembanyama

C · 2023 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #1 (SAS)

Drafted#1SAS · 2023
Redraft rank (live)#1of 58 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #1~#72000–2021 median
Verdict (early)Beat his slot · +6spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.

The 2023 class is only 3 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#1).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Age

    19.5 years old on draft night (born 2004-01-04).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    C (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 187 games over 4 NBA seasons (~57% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons4
Games187
Minutes / game30.4
Points / game23.4
Rebounds / game11.0
Assists / game3.5
Win Shares (career)18.0
VORP13.3
Box Plus/Minus7.3
2026-27 so far3 GP, 20 PPG (ESPN)

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2023 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

11151530304545Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Brandon Miller: pick 2 → redraft 10Scoot Henderson: pick 3 → redraft 39Amen Thompson: pick 4 → redraft 2Ausar Thompson: pick 5 → redraft 5Anthony Black: pick 6 → redraft 11Bilal Coulibaly: pick 7 → redraft 34Jarace Walker: pick 8 → redraft 30Taylor Hendricks: pick 9 → redraft 31Cason Wallace: pick 10 → redraft 3Jett Howard: pick 11 → redraft 38Dereck Lively II: pick 12 → redraft 9Gradey Dick: pick 13 → redraft 21Jordan Hawkins: pick 14 → redraft 44Kobe Bufkin: pick 15 → redraft 52Keyonte George: pick 16 → redraft 17Jalen Hood-Schifino: pick 17 → redraft 54Jaime Jaquez Jr.: pick 18 → redraft 7Brandin Podziemski: pick 19 → redraft 4Cam Whitmore: pick 20 → redraft 15Noah Clowney: pick 21 → redraft 26Dariq Whitehead: pick 22 → redraft 47Kris Murray: pick 23 → redraft 20Olivier-Maxence Prosper: pick 24 → redraft 16Marcus Sasser: pick 25 → redraft 19Ben Sheppard: pick 26 → redraft 18Nick Smith Jr.: pick 27 → redraft 55Brice Sensabaugh: pick 28 → redraft 35Julian Strawther: pick 29 → redraft 24Kobe Brown: pick 30 → redraft 32James Nnaji: pick 31 → redraft 56Jalen Pickett: pick 32 → redraft 33Leonard Miller: pick 33 → redraft 27Colby Jones: pick 34 → redraft 41Julian Phillips: pick 35 → redraft 28Andre Jackson Jr.: pick 36 → redraft 37Hunter Tyson: pick 37 → redraft 43Jordan Walsh: pick 38 → redraft 13Mouhamed Gueye: pick 39 → redraft 14Maxwell Lewis: pick 40 → redraft 51Amari Bailey: pick 41 → redraft 48Tristan Vukcevic: pick 42 → redraft 29Rayan Rupert: pick 43 → redraft 42Sidy Cissoko: pick 44 → redraft 36GG Jackson II: pick 45 → redraft 25Seth Lundy: pick 46 → redraft 49Mojave King: pick 47 → redraft 57Jordan Miller: pick 48 → redraft 12Emoni Bates: pick 49 → redraft 53Keyontae Johnson: pick 50 → redraft 50Jalen Wilson: pick 51 → redraft 23Toumani Camara: pick 52 → redraft 6Jaylen Clark: pick 53 → redraft 22Jalen Slawson: pick 54 → redraft 40Isaiah Wong: pick 55 → redraft 46Tarik Biberovic: pick 56 → redraft 58Trayce Jackson-Davis: pick 57 → redraft 8Chris Livingston: pick 58 → redraft 45

Each dot is a 2023 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank		51.8%
n=765
Age
Under 20		51.7%
n=300
Position
Center		51.1%
n=182

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight7' 5", 220 lbs
Age on draft night19.5
Born2004-01-04
ESPN pre-draft rank#1 overall (#1 C)

Picked around him 2023 redraft

2Brandon Millerredraft #10
3Scoot Hendersonredraft #39
4Amen Thompsonredraft #2

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.