Trey Murphy III
SG, Virginia · 2021 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #17 (MEM)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #18 (#7 at his position), close to where he went (#17). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.0 years old on draft night (born 2000-06-18).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Virginia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 323 games over 6 NBA seasons (~66% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 323 |
| Minutes / game | 29.1 |
| Points / game | 15.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 4.3 |
| Assists / game | 2.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 24.8 |
| VORP | 8.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 1.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 15.3 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 206 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.0 |
| Born | 2000-06-18 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #18 overall (#7 SG) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 14 | Moses Moody | redraft #21 |
| 15 | Corey Kispert | redraft #25 |
| 16 | Alperen Şengün | redraft #2 |
| 18 | Tre Mann | redraft #38 |
| 19 | Kai Jones | redraft #32 |
| 20 | Jalen Johnson | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.