Trae Young
PG, Oklahoma · 2018 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #5 (DAL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #10 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.8 years old on draft night (born 1998-09-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Oklahoma.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 504 games over 9 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 504 |
| Minutes / game | 34.2 |
| Points / game | 25.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 3.4 |
| Assists / game | 9.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 45.5 |
| VORP | 20.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 2.6 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 22.3 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 178 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.8 |
| Born | 1998-09-19 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #10 overall (#1 PG) |
Picked around him 2018 redraft
| 2 | Marvin Bagley III | redraft #24 |
| 3 | Luka Dončić | redraft #1 |
| 4 | Jaren Jackson Jr. | redraft #8 |
| 6 | Mo Bamba | redraft #22 |
| 7 | Wendell Carter Jr. | redraft #12 |
| 8 | Collin Sexton | redraft #17 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.