Thomas Welsh

C, UCLA · 2018 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #58 (DEN)

Drafted#58DEN · 2018
Redraft rank (live)#46of 60 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #58~#552000–2021 median
VerdictBeat his slot · +9spots vs. typical

Why he was overlooked Patterns

Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    No ESPN pre-draft ranking on file for him.

  • Age

    22.4 years old on draft night (born 1996-02-03).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    Played college basketball at UCLA.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    C (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 11 games over 1 NBA season (~13% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons1
Games11
Minutes / game3.3
Points / game1.6
Rebounds / game0.4
Assists / game0.5
Win Shares (career)0.1
VORP0.0
Box Plus/Minus1.2

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2018 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

111515303045456060Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Deandre Ayton: pick 1 → redraft 6Marvin Bagley III: pick 2 → redraft 24Luka Dončić: pick 3 → redraft 1Jaren Jackson Jr.: pick 4 → redraft 8Trae Young: pick 5 → redraft 4Mo Bamba: pick 6 → redraft 22Wendell Carter Jr.: pick 7 → redraft 12Collin Sexton: pick 8 → redraft 17Kevin Knox: pick 9 → redraft 42Mikal Bridges: pick 10 → redraft 5Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: pick 11 → redraft 2Miles Bridges: pick 12 → redraft 13Jerome Robinson: pick 13 → redraft 53Michael Porter Jr.: pick 14 → redraft 10Troy Brown Jr.: pick 15 → redraft 31Zhaire Smith: pick 16 → redraft 48Donte DiVincenzo: pick 17 → redraft 9Lonnie Walker IV: pick 18 → redraft 36Kevin Huerter: pick 19 → redraft 15Josh Okogie: pick 20 → redraft 27Grayson Allen: pick 21 → redraft 14Chandler Hutchison: pick 22 → redraft 41Aaron Holiday: pick 23 → redraft 29Anfernee Simons: pick 24 → redraft 23Moritz Wagner: pick 25 → redraft 20Landry Shamet: pick 26 → redraft 26Robert Williams: pick 27 → redraft 11Jacob Evans: pick 28 → redraft 57Džanan Musa: pick 29 → redraft 47Omari Spellman: pick 30 → redraft 37Elie Okobo: pick 31 → redraft 43Jevon Carter: pick 32 → redraft 30Jalen Brunson: pick 33 → redraft 3Devonte' Graham: pick 34 → redraft 25Melvin Frazier: pick 35 → redraft 56Mitchell Robinson: pick 36 → redraft 7Gary Trent Jr.: pick 37 → redraft 21Khyri Thomas: pick 38 → redraft 44Isaac Bonga: pick 39 → redraft 39Rodions Kurucs: pick 40 → redraft 38Jarred Vanderbilt: pick 41 → redraft 19Bruce Brown: pick 42 → redraft 16Justin Jackson: pick 43 → redraft 58Issuf Sanon: pick 44 → redraft 59Hamidou Diallo: pick 45 → redraft 33De'Anthony Melton: pick 46 → redraft 18Svi Mykhailiuk: pick 47 → redraft 35Keita Bates-Diop: pick 48 → redraft 32Chimezie Metu: pick 49 → redraft 34Alize Johnson: pick 50 → redraft 40Tony Carr: pick 51 → redraft 60Vince Edwards: pick 52 → redraft 49Devon Hall: pick 53 → redraft 55Shake Milton: pick 54 → redraft 28Arnoldas Kulboka: pick 55 → redraft 50Ray Spalding: pick 56 → redraft 45Kevin Hervey: pick 57 → redraft 51George King: pick 59 → redraft 52Kostas Antetokounmpo: pick 60 → redraft 54

Each dot is a 2018 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Age
22		51.9%
n=339
Path to the draft
US college		53.2%
n=1,015
Position
Center		51.1%
n=182

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight7' 0", 255 lbs
Age on draft night22.4
Born1996-02-03

Picked around him 2018 redraft

55Arnoldas Kulbokaredraft #50
56Ray Spaldingredraft #45
57Kevin Herveyredraft #51
59George Kingredraft #52
60Kostas Antetokounmporedraft #54

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.