Steve Novak
SF, Marquette · 2006 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #32 (HOU)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #50 (#11 at his position); he went #32, 18 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.0 years old on draft night (born 1984-06-13).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Marquette.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 467 games over 11 NBA seasons (~52% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 467 |
| Minutes / game | 12.1 |
| Points / game | 4.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.3 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 14.5 |
| VORP | 4.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.8 |
The 2006 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2006 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 216 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.0 |
| Born | Brown Deer, WI |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #50 overall (#11 SF) |
Picked around him 2006 redraft
| 29 | Mardy Collins | redraft #48 |
| 30 | Joel Freeland | redraft #29 |
| 31 | James White | redraft #33 |
| 33 | Solomon Jones | redraft #26 |
| 34 | Paul Davis | redraft #36 |
| 35 | P.J. Tucker | redraft #9 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.