Saddiq Bey
PF, Villanova · 2020 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #19 (BRK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #17 (#3 at his position), close to where he went (#19). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.2 years old on draft night (born 1999-04-09).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Villanova.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 370 games over 6 NBA seasons (~75% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 370 |
| Minutes / game | 30.3 |
| Points / game | 14.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.3 |
| Assists / game | 2.0 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.5 |
| VORP | 4.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -0.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 15.7 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2020 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2020 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 216 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.2 |
| Born | 1999-04-09 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #17 overall (#3 PF) |
Picked around him 2020 redraft
| 16 | Isaiah Stewart | redraft #17 |
| 17 | Aleksej Pokusevski | redraft #55 |
| 18 | Josh Green | redraft #27 |
| 20 | Precious Achiuwa | redraft #22 |
| 21 | Tyrese Maxey | redraft #3 |
| 22 | Zeke Nnaji | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.