Russ Smith
SG, Louisville · 2014 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #47 (PHI)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #58 (#12 at his position); he went #47, 11 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 27 games over 2 NBA seasons (~16% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Age
23.2 years old on draft night (born 1991-04-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Louisville.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 4" at 6' 0" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 2 |
| Games | 27 |
| Minutes / game | 4.9 |
| Points / game | 2.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.2 |
| VORP | -0.1 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.1 |
The 2014 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2014 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 0", 160 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 4" |
| Age on draft night | 23.2 |
| Born | Briarwood, NY |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #58 overall (#12 SG) |
Picked around him 2014 redraft
| 44 | Markel Brown | redraft #35 |
| 45 | Dwight Powell | redraft #7 |
| 46 | Jordan Clarkson | redraft #15 |
| 48 | Lamar Patterson | redraft #46 |
| 49 | Cameron Bairstow | redraft #47 |
| 50 | Alec Brown | redraft #56 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.