RJ Barrett
SG, Duke · 2019 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #3 (NYK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a risk: his profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #3 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.0 years old on draft night (born 2000-06-14).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 449 games over 8 NBA seasons (~68% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 8 |
| Games | 449 |
| Minutes / game | 32.7 |
| Points / game | 18.9 |
| Rebounds / game | 5.5 |
| Assists / game | 3.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 18.0 |
| VORP | 2.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
| 2026-27 so far | 3 GP, 21 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 7", 208 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.0 |
| Born | 2000-06-14 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #3 overall (#1 SG) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 1 | Zion Williamson | redraft #1 |
| 2 | Ja Morant | redraft #3 |
| 4 | De'Andre Hunter | redraft #22 |
| 5 | Darius Garland | redraft #6 |
| 6 | Jarrett Culver | redraft #54 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.