Patrick Baldwin Jr.

SF, UW-Milwaukee · 2022 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #28 (GSW)

Drafted#28GSW · 2022
Redraft rank (live)#40of 58 picks
Typical redraft rank for pick #28~#272000–2021 median
Verdict (early)Below his slot · -13spots vs. typical

Why he went too high Patterns

Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: pre-draft rankings, availability. Details below.

The 2022 class is only 4 seasons in, so this verdict can still change a lot.

  • Pre-draft rankings

    ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #46 (#13 at his position); he went #28, 18 spots earlier. Teams were higher on him than the media board was.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Availability

    Played 102 games over 4 NBA seasons (~31% of a full 82-game schedule each year).

  • Age

    19.6 years old on draft night (born 2002-11-18).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Path to the draft

    Played college basketball at UW-Milwaukee.

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

  • Position

    SF (ESPN draft listing).

    Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.

Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.

Career numberslive

Seasons4
Games102
Minutes / game9.1
Points / game3.7
Rebounds / game2.1
Assists / game0.5
Win Shares (career)0.7
VORP-0.3
Box Plus/Minus-3.3

Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.

The 2022 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft

11151530304545Draft pick →Redraft rank (best at top)Paolo Banchero: pick 1 → redraft 4Chet Holmgren: pick 2 → redraft 3Jabari Smith Jr.: pick 3 → redraft 8Keegan Murray: pick 4 → redraft 13Jaden Ivey: pick 5 → redraft 31Bennedict Mathurin: pick 6 → redraft 19Shaedon Sharpe: pick 7 → redraft 25Dyson Daniels: pick 8 → redraft 6Jeremy Sochan: pick 9 → redraft 27Johnny Davis: pick 10 → redraft 52Ousmane Dieng: pick 11 → redraft 35Jalen Williams: pick 12 → redraft 2Jalen Duren: pick 13 → redraft 1Ochai Agbaji: pick 14 → redraft 26Mark Williams: pick 15 → redraft 7AJ Griffin: pick 16 → redraft 34Tari Eason: pick 17 → redraft 11Dalen Terry: pick 18 → redraft 30Jake LaRavia: pick 19 → redraft 14Malaki Branham: pick 20 → redraft 46Christian Braun: pick 21 → redraft 10Walker Kessler: pick 22 → redraft 5David Roddy: pick 23 → redraft 36MarJon Beauchamp: pick 24 → redraft 37Blake Wesley: pick 25 → redraft 50Wendell Moore Jr.: pick 26 → redraft 39Nikola Jović: pick 27 → redraft 22TyTy Washington Jr.: pick 29 → redraft 51Peyton Watson: pick 30 → redraft 18Andrew Nembhard: pick 31 → redraft 16Caleb Houstan: pick 32 → redraft 29Christian Koloko: pick 33 → redraft 32Jaylin Williams: pick 34 → redraft 9Max Christie: pick 35 → redraft 23Gabriele Procida: pick 36 → redraft 53Jaden Hardy: pick 37 → redraft 43Kennedy Chandler: pick 38 → redraft 44Khalifa Diop: pick 39 → redraft 54Bryce McGowens: pick 40 → redraft 33E.J. Liddell: pick 41 → redraft 42Trevor Keels: pick 42 → redraft 49Moussa Diabaté: pick 43 → redraft 12Ryan Rollins: pick 44 → redraft 15Josh Minott: pick 45 → redraft 17Ismael Kamagate: pick 46 → redraft 55Vince Williams Jr.: pick 47 → redraft 28Kendall Brown: pick 48 → redraft 47Isaiah Mobley: pick 49 → redraft 45Matteo Spagnolo: pick 50 → redraft 56Tyrese Martin: pick 51 → redraft 38Karlo Matković: pick 52 → redraft 24JD Davison: pick 53 → redraft 41Yannick Nzosa: pick 54 → redraft 57Gui Santos: pick 55 → redraft 20Luke Travers: pick 56 → redraft 48Jabari Walker: pick 57 → redraft 21Hugo Besson: pick 58 → redraft 58

Each dot is a 2022 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.

How players like him did

Pre-draft rankings
Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank		33.8%
n=272
Age
Under 20		51.7%
n=300
Path to the draft
US college		53.2%
n=1,015
Position
Forward		51.2%
n=570

Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.

Measurables & pre-draft

Height / weight6' 9", 220 lbs
Age on draft night19.6
Born2002-11-18
ESPN pre-draft rank#46 overall (#13 SF)

Picked around him 2022 redraft

25Blake Wesleyredraft #50
26Wendell Moore Jr.redraft #39
27Nikola Jovićredraft #22
29TyTy Washington Jr.redraft #51
30Peyton Watsonredraft #18
31Andrew Nembhardredraft #16

How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.