Nerlens Noel
C, Kentucky · 2013 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #6 (NOH)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #1 (#1 at his position), close to where he went (#6).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.2 years old on draft night (born 1994-04-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kentucky.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 4" at 7' 0" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 467 games over 9 NBA seasons (~63% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 467 |
| Minutes / game | 22.0 |
| Points / game | 7.1 |
| Rebounds / game | 6.1 |
| Assists / game | 1.1 |
| Win Shares (career) | 28.3 |
| VORP | 7.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.9 |
The 2013 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2013 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 219 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 4" |
| Age on draft night | 19.2 |
| Born | Everett, MA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #1 overall (#1 C) |
Picked around him 2013 redraft
| 3 | Otto Porter Jr. | redraft #8 |
| 4 | Cody Zeller | redraft #13 |
| 5 | Alex Len | redraft #17 |
| 7 | Ben McLemore | redraft #28 |
| 8 | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | redraft #7 |
| 9 | Trey Burke | redraft #21 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.