Marcus Paige
PG, UNC · 2016 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #55 (BRK)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #74 (#15 at his position); he went #55, 19 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.8 years old on draft night (born 1993-09-11).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UNC.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 6" at 6' 2" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 5 games over 1 NBA season (~6% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 5 |
| Minutes / game | 5.6 |
| Points / game | 2.4 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.6 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.0 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -8.8 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2016 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2016 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 2", 164 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 6" |
| Age on draft night | 22.8 |
| Born | Marion, IA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #74 overall (#15 PG) |
Picked around him 2016 redraft
| 52 | Joel Bolomboy | redraft #38 |
| 53 | Petr Cornelie | redraft #46 |
| 54 | Kay Felder | redraft #54 |
| 56 | Daniel Hamilton | redraft #43 |
| 57 | Wang Zhelin | redraft #59 |
| 58 | Abdel Nader | redraft #32 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.