Marco Belinelli
SG · 2007 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #18 (GSW)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 860 games over 13 NBA seasons (~81% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #35 (#8 at his position); he went #18, 17 spots earlier. So teams were actually higher on him than the media board was; everyone underrated him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 33.8% of the time (272 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.3 years old on draft night (born 1986-03-25).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Bologna, Italy.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 13 |
| Games | 860 |
| Minutes / game | 22.7 |
| Points / game | 9.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.1 |
| Assists / game | 1.7 |
| Win Shares (career) | 30.5 |
| VORP | 3.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.3 |
The 2007 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2007 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Taken 10+ picks before ESPN's rank | 33.8% n=272 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 200 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 21.3 |
| Born | Bologna, Italy |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #35 overall (#8 SG) |
Picked around him 2007 redraft
| 15 | Rodney Stuckey | redraft #13 |
| 16 | Nick Young | redraft #22 |
| 17 | Sean Williams | redraft #32 |
| 19 | Javaris Crittenton | redraft #40 |
| 20 | Jason Smith | redraft #24 |
| 21 | Daequan Cook | redraft #29 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.