KZ Okpala
SF, Stanford · 2019 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #32 (PHO)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 98 games over 4 NBA seasons (~30% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #24 (#5 at his position), close to where he went (#32).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
20.2 years old on draft night (born 1999-04-28).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.4% of the time (246 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Stanford.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 98 |
| Minutes / game | 9.8 |
| Points / game | 2.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.5 |
| Assists / game | 0.5 |
| Win Shares (career) | 1.0 |
| VORP | -0.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.7 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2019 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2019 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 20 | 50.4% n=246 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 10", 210 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 20.2 |
| Born | 1999-04-28 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #24 overall (#5 SF) |
Picked around him 2019 redraft
| 29 | Keldon Johnson | redraft #10 |
| 30 | Kevin Porter Jr. | redraft #21 |
| 31 | Nic Claxton | redraft #4 |
| 33 | Carsen Edwards | redraft #44 |
| 34 | Bruno Fernando | redraft #33 |
| 35 | Didi Louzada | redraft #56 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.