Keon Johnson
SG, Tennessee · 2021 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #21 (NYK)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 161 games over 4 NBA seasons (~49% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #11 overall (#5 at his position), but he lasted until pick #21: teams let him slide 10 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.3 years old on draft night (born 2002-03-10).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Tennessee.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 4 |
| Games | 161 |
| Minutes / game | 19.2 |
| Points / game | 8.2 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.7 |
| Assists / game | 1.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.3 |
| VORP | -1.7 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -4.2 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2021 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2021 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 186 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 19.3 |
| Born | 2002-03-10 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #11 overall (#5 SG) |
Picked around him 2021 redraft
| 18 | Tre Mann | redraft #38 |
| 19 | Kai Jones | redraft #32 |
| 20 | Jalen Johnson | redraft #8 |
| 22 | Isaiah Jackson | redraft #22 |
| 23 | Usman Garuba | redraft #35 |
| 24 | Josh Christopher | redraft #45 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.