Keith Bogans
SG, Kentucky · 2003 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #43 (MIL)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #40 (#11 at his position), close to where he went (#43). The whole market, not just his team, missed on him.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
23.1 years old on draft night (born 1980-05-12).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Kentucky.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SG (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.9% of the time (499 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 671 games over 11 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 11 |
| Games | 671 |
| Minutes / game | 21.6 |
| Points / game | 6.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.7 |
| Assists / game | 1.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 20.4 |
| VORP | 1.9 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Guard | 48.9% n=499 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 5", 213 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 23.1 |
| Born | 1980-05-12 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #40 overall (#11 SG) |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 40 | Derrick Zimmerman | redraft #46 |
| 41 | Willie Green | redraft #26 |
| 42 | Zaza Pachulia | redraft #9 |
| 44 | Malick Badiane | redraft #51 |
| 45 | Matt Bonner | redraft #11 |
| 46 | Sani Bečirovič | redraft #52 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.