Justin Harper
PF, Richmond · 2011 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #32 (CLE)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 22 games over 3 NBA seasons (~9% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #30 (#9 at his position), close to where he went (#32).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.8 years old on draft night (born 1989-08-30).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Richmond.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 6' 9" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
PF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 3 |
| Games | 22 |
| Minutes / game | 6.8 |
| Points / game | 2.0 |
| Rebounds / game | 0.8 |
| Assists / game | 0.2 |
| Win Shares (career) | -0.3 |
| VORP | -0.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -8.7 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 9", 228 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 21.8 |
| Born | Richmond, VA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #30 overall (#9 PF) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 29 | Cory Joseph | redraft #18 |
| 30 | Jimmy Butler | redraft #1 |
| 31 | Bojan Bogdanović | redraft #16 |
| 33 | Kyle Singler | redraft #30 |
| 34 | Shelvin Mack | redraft #29 |
| 35 | Tyler Honeycutt | redraft #47 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.