Justin Anderson
SF, Virginia · 2015 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #21 (DAL)
Why he went too high Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being overvalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 242 games over 6 NBA seasons (~49% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #25 (#8 at his position), close to where he went (#21).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
21.6 years old on draft night (born 1993-11-19).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 47.6% of the time (286 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Virginia.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 0" at 6' 6" tall (+6.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (135 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a bust for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 6 |
| Games | 242 |
| Minutes / game | 13.6 |
| Points / game | 5.3 |
| Rebounds / game | 2.6 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 4.9 |
| VORP | 0.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -1.5 |
The 2015 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2015 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 21 | 47.6% n=286 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +5 in. or more | 51.1% n=135 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 6", 231 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 0" |
| Age on draft night | 21.6 |
| Born | Montross, VA |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #25 overall (#8 SF) |
Picked around him 2015 redraft
| 18 | Sam Dekker | redraft #29 |
| 19 | Jerian Grant | redraft #25 |
| 20 | Delon Wright | redraft #10 |
| 22 | Bobby Portis | redraft #13 |
| 23 | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | redraft #23 |
| 24 | Tyus Jones | redraft #8 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.