Jonas Valančiūnas
C · 2011 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #5 (TOR)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: availability. Details below.
- Availability
Played 1002 games over 14 NBA seasons (~87% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#5).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.1 years old on draft night (born 1992-05-06).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
International prospect, born in Utena, Lithuania .
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 41.7% of the time (151 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 7' 4" at 7' 0" tall (+4.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
C (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.1% of the time (182 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 14 |
| Games | 1002 |
| Minutes / game | 24.4 |
| Points / game | 12.8 |
| Rebounds / game | 9.0 |
| Assists / game | 1.4 |
| Win Shares (career) | 87.6 |
| VORP | 18.2 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 0.9 |
The 2011 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2011 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft International | 41.7% n=151 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Center | 51.1% n=182 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 7' 0", 245 lbs |
| Wingspan | 7' 4" |
| Age on draft night | 19.1 |
| Born | Utena, Lithuania |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#2 C) |
Picked around him 2011 redraft
| 2 | Derrick Williams | redraft #24 |
| 3 | Enes Freedom | redraft #10 |
| 4 | Tristan Thompson | redraft #15 |
| 6 | Jan Veselý | redraft #34 |
| 7 | Bismack Biyombo | redraft #20 |
| 8 | Brandon Knight | redraft #27 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.