John Tonje
F, Wisconsin · 2025 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #53 (UTA)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Signals in our data that pointed to him being undervalued: pre-draft rankings. Details below.
The 2025 class is only 1 season in, so this verdict can still change a lot.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #42 overall (#13 at his position), but he lasted until pick #53: teams let him slide 11 spots past that ranking.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 68.6% of the time (194 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
24.2 years old on draft night (born 2001-04-23).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 48.6% of the time (138 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Wisconsin.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
F (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 6 games over 1 NBA season (~7% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 1 |
| Games | 6 |
| Minutes / game | 7.0 |
| Points / game | 2.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.0 |
| Assists / game | 0.3 |
| Win Shares (career) | 0.1 |
| VORP | 0.0 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -5.1 |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2025 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2025 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Slid 10+ picks past ESPN's rank | 68.6% n=194 | |
| Age 23 or older | 48.6% n=138 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 4.75", 212 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 24.2 |
| Born | 2001-04-23 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #42 overall (#13 F) |
Picked around him 2025 redraft
| 50 | Kobe Sanders | redraft #16 |
| 51 | Mohamed Diawara | redraft #25 |
| 52 | Alex Toohey | redraft #58 |
| 54 | Taelon Peter | redraft #43 |
| 55 | Lachlan Olbrich | redraft #32 |
| 56 | Will Richard | redraft #13 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.