Jayson Tatum
SF, Duke · 2017 NBA Draft, 1st round, pick #3 (BOS)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #4 (#2 at his position), close to where he went (#3).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
19.3 years old on draft night (born 1998-03-03).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.7% of the time (300 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at Duke.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Length
Wingspan 6' 11" at 6' 8" tall (+3.0 in.), per ESPN's draft profile.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 50.2% of the time (217 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 605 games over 10 NBA seasons (~74% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numberslive
| Seasons | 10 |
| Games | 605 |
| Minutes / game | 34.5 |
| Points / game | 23.5 |
| Rebounds / game | 7.4 |
| Assists / game | 3.9 |
| Win Shares (career) | 67.6 |
| VORP | 30.4 |
| Box Plus/Minus | 3.8 |
| 2026-27 so far | 2 GP, 24.5 PPG (ESPN) |
Career Win Shares + VORP (Basketball-Reference, through 2025-26) + 2026-27 estimates from ESPN season stats.
The 2017 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2017 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age Under 20 | 51.7% n=300 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Length +2 to +5 in. | 50.2% n=217 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 204 lbs |
| Wingspan | 6' 11" |
| Age on draft night | 19.3 |
| Born | 1998-03-03 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #4 overall (#2 SF) |
Picked around him 2017 redraft
| 1 | Markelle Fultz | redraft #22 |
| 2 | Lonzo Ball | redraft #15 |
| 4 | Josh Jackson | redraft #57 |
| 5 | De'Aaron Fox | redraft #6 |
| 6 | Jonathan Isaac | redraft #16 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.