Jason Kapono
SF, UCLA · 2003 NBA Draft, 2nd round, pick #31 (CLE)
Why he was overlooked Patterns
Nothing in our pre-draft data flagged him as a steal: his age, school, testing and position profile looked like a typical pick in his range. The gap opened after the draft, on the field.
- Pre-draft rankings
ESPN's pre-draft board ranked him #34 (#10 at his position), close to where he went (#31).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.8% of the time (765 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Age
22.4 years old on draft night (born 1981-02-04).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.9% of the time (339 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Path to the draft
Played college basketball at UCLA.
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 53.2% of the time (1,015 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Position
SF (ESPN draft listing).
Since 2000, picks in this group beat their draft slot 51.2% of the time (570 players, 2000–2021 classes) vs. 50% for a typical pick.
- Availability
Played 509 games over 9 NBA seasons (~69% of a full 82-game schedule each year).
Every line comes from data: Basketball-Reference career data; ESPN's draft profile; Wikidata birth dates. No scouting reports or quotes. Green = pointed toward a steal for him.
Career numbers
| Seasons | 9 |
| Games | 509 |
| Minutes / game | 17.8 |
| Points / game | 6.7 |
| Rebounds / game | 1.7 |
| Assists / game | 0.8 |
| Win Shares (career) | 10.3 |
| VORP | -1.3 |
| Box Plus/Minus | -2.6 |
The 2003 class: draft pick vs. redraft rank Full redraft
Each dot is a 2003 pick. Dashed line = typical redraft rank for each slot (2000–2021 classes). Above the line = beat his slot.
How players like him did
| Pre-draft rankings Within 10 picks of ESPN's rank | 51.8% n=765 | |
| Age 22 | 51.9% n=339 | |
| Path to the draft US college | 53.2% n=1,015 | |
| Position Forward | 51.2% n=570 |
Share of 2000–2021 picks with the same trait who beat their draft slot. Line = 50%.
Measurables & pre-draft
| Height / weight | 6' 8", 213 lbs |
| Age on draft night | 22.4 |
| Born | 1981-02-04 |
| ESPN pre-draft rank | #34 overall (#10 SF) |
Picked around him 2003 redraft
| 28 | Leandro Barbosa | redraft #13 |
| 29 | Josh Howard | redraft #12 |
| 30 | Maciej Lampe | redraft #41 |
| 32 | Luke Walton | redraft #25 |
| 33 | Jerome Beasley | redraft #45 |
| 34 | Sofoklis Schortsanitis | redraft #48 |
How verdicts and reasons are computed: methodology. Steal / bust = 15+ spots better / worse than the typical redraft rank for the slot.